Here is a link to a recent diagnosis exercise I just went through on another similar question - might be of some interest to you, though that case is likely duct related whereas your I think may be outside -
In your case however, and especially with the only on very cold night issue and especially more early in winter, my first, second and probably third guess would be the deck.
Baseboard heating pipes commonly creak, pop, and sometimes squeek as they expand and contract, but unless the pipes are jamming up where they come out of the floor so they make the baseboard radiator "pop", they usually do not "bang" like steam pipes do. And would sound like someone accidentally kicking the baseboard like a minor clang or thump - and typically quite metallic sounding in that case.
The jut out on the house could make the noiseif it is heating and cooling signifiantly, but with constant heat in the house I would doubt it - that noise can occur on occasion due to siding being installed without adequate expansion gaps at the ends of boards or edges of panels. Usually if that is the problem, though, you will get bulging or end-cracking or splitting of the siding oer time. Plus of course the expansion and noise occurs in HOT conditions (usually direct sunlight on hot days), not in the cold of winter.
Deck, especially in early winter as they initially freeze and the moisture content in the boards is typically high, tend to thump quite hard as they freeze - commonly sounds about like someone jumping up high and landing hard on the deck in boots, or maybe like someone hitting the far end of the house with a sledgehammer. Not uncommon to actually feel the thump while in your bed.
What is happening can be one of several things:
1) most commonly, moisture in the boards is freezing causing expansion - till eventually the board(s) pop a nail, or break free of the frost holding them to the support boards. They freeze at the joists first because that is where the free water is and is accessible to the air all around so it freezes hard first, then as hard freezing conditions persist through the night the water in the boards themselves expands, causing the board to eventually break the ice bond - or in extreme cases to push hard enough against the end of the next board to break it free. This commonly happens from a couple to around 4-6 hours after evening hard freeze sets in, so commonly about midnightish as opposed to early evening or early AM, in normal daily temperature fluctuation conditions. This can easily happen to several boards in one night, and if thawing in the daytime, or especially if getting rained on or getting snow meltwater again, can become more frequent for awhile then taper off a few days to a week or so later.
2) decks are basically built as a single unit without specific expansion provision, but are semi-rigidly fastened in place by the piers and commonly rigidly fastened along the house edge - so any expansion or contraction creates stresses in the deck which eventually can get strong enough to cause popping and creaking and thumping noises. Because it is rigidly constructed, the stresses (from moisture or freezing or on large decks even just daily thermal changes) can accumulate fairly well before something releases, so the thump or bang can be quite loud.
3) if your support posts (on decks with outer edge support piers/posts and fastened to the house with a ledger board) are frost heaving, then they lift the deck upwards at the outer edge, which can cause sounds from nails prying out of the house as the ledger board tilts up - or in extreme cases ripping out of lag bolts or joist hangers. Check to be sure your ledger board is not tilting away form the house at the bottom, and that the deck is not tilting up significantly at the outer edge.
4) sometimes the freezing water in the deck boards can cause splitting of the board, which makes a tearing or ripping sound usually, rather than a thump.
5) occasionally, frost heave in the ground under the stairs can lift the stairs, causing tearing or ripping where it is fastened to the deck.
While disturbing, this sort of noise (in moderation) does not normally "damage" a deck, though of course it does cause a general loosening up of fasteners over time, and sometimes snaps deck nails or screws (screws more often because they are generally higher stress steel, so can't yield as much before snapping). Of course, significant frost heaving does need to be taken care of - by solving the cause (footings bearing on/in frost heave susceptible soil) or by releveling the deck periodically if a slow, gradual year-by-year heaving of the foundations.
Measures to take - just visually inspect the deck and alll support posts and connections periodically (every year or two) for broken or loose ones, but generally unless deck board fasteners break, you will not see anything except maybe a few nail heads sticking up. And check it with a level to be sure the outer edge is not lifting up due to frost heaving of the piers, and adjust back level (hopefully you have adjustable piers/posts).